No one can question the fact that the months since the Iraqi election have been grim. Whatever US politicians may say, US intelligence experts see no decline in the insurgency in Iraq. Insurgent tactics have changed to focus increasingly on Iraqi officials and ­military, security and police personnel. Bloody suicide bombings of Shias, Kurds and Sunnis supporting the government have been combined with more ambushes, kidnappings and assassinations of Americans, Britons, Iraqis and any other target that could help push the country towards civil war, paralyse the political process and drive foreigners out. There are bad days and good ones, and a single improvised bomb can kill 14 US troops, as we saw this week.

The political process remains highly uncertain. No one knows whether a constitution will be drafted on time and, if so, whether it will resolve any critical issues, and whether enough provinces will vote to support it. The prospect of yet another government and election is equally uncertain. Tensions between Arab Sunni and Shia are growing, alongside Kurdish demands for federalism and control of oil revenue. The role of religion in the state is a significant issue. Basra risks becoming a Shia fundamentalist enclave, and tensions in Baghdad, Mosul and Kirkuk are high.