Three months after its third consecutive defeat and the election of Nicolas Sarkozy, the French left is in disarray. The new president is highly popular and hyperactive. The socialist leadership, meanwhile, is divided, depressed and deprived of any vision or perspective.

Ségolène Royal, who has tried to convert her electoral defeat into a bid on the Socialist party, underestimated the stiff resistance to her leadership. She is inclined to pursue the strategy that led her to be chosen as the Socialist presidential candidate: promoting herself to the public while circumventing the party apparatus. But she cannot ignore the rough law of politics: to win elections the support of a strong party is indispensable. For this reason she will probably try to play it both ways: inside and outside the party.