There are justifiable concerns in the Arab world that the current debate over a draft United Nations Security Council resolution could plunge Lebanon into a civil war. Because of Lebanon’s structural weakness, Hizbollah’s guns could be turned against its competitors in the country instead of against Israel. While this is alarming, there is a much larger danger: that similar confrontations could be triggered elsewhere in the Middle East.

The crux of the problem in Lebanon is that a political movement became bigger than the state – not far behind a state takeover in the manner of the Taliban in Afghanistan before 2001. The same syndrome – a perceived lack of legitimacy of governments that are being challenged by armed political movements – can be seen in many Arab and Muslim states. The challenge today is therefore not just to achieve a ceasefire and a sustainable solution in Lebanon, but to secure a more comprehensive framework for peace in the Middle East that prevents the “Lebanon syndrome” from spreading throughout the region. Otherwise, there will be many Lebanons.