Take a quick look at the oil price and you would think the market is rapidly returning to health. On Tuesday, the market’s main benchmark – West Texas Intermediate – jumped to a six-month high of $60.48 a barrel, up 85 per cent from February’s low of $32.7.

Dig deeper into the world of physical oil and another picture emerges, however: the fundamentals of supply and demand are weak – much weaker than current prices imply.