Much like an actor who can’t help looking sideways at any mirror he passes, the market has decided, based on its own technical action over the past couple of weeks, that it is in something more than a bear market rally. A rally, that is, in risk assets, but not in gold. The gold price, after bouncing around in a channel in the $900s, is, I believe, going to move decisively lower over the next several months, probably to somewhere below $800 an ounce.

This is the converse of what you see most visibly in the equity markets. Since the autumn, people have believed that their money was about to be pulled out of bed early some morning, taken out to the woods, and shot.