Even before it was flooded by torrential rainfall at the weekend, Northern Ireland was feeling put upon. It has suffered more from the UK's recent economic slowdown than any other region as its house prices have fallen further than elsewhere. But local analysts believe if the country slips into recession, Northern Ireland could end up outperforming the rest.

The main reason is the big size of the public sector - a direct legacy of Northern Ireland's 30-odd years of political troubles. Public spending per head is 28 per cent higher than the UK average. The public sector accounts for 60 per cent of economic activity and employs a third of the workforce. In a downturn it has tended to act as a safety net.