In the space of a few weeks, the shape of the global economic downturn has undergone a rapid change. New data have turned conventional wisdom on its head, raising fears of a synchronised decline in which the US - while still at risk - is no longer an outlier and may even do better than some of its peers.

This was certainly the case in the second quarter, when gross domestic product grew much faster in the US than in any other leading industrial economy, expanding at 0.8 per cent in the quarter (3.3 per cent annualised). Over the same period, the eurozone and Japan suffered declines of 0.2 per cent and 0.6 per cent respectively, while Canada recorded a bare 0.1 per cent gain and the UK was flat.