It is the trash that has done best. Over the past month, while the FTSE All-World index has roared ahead by a quarter, AIG’s share price has almost tripled while Citigroup’s has doubled. In Europe, highly indebted companies such as retailer Debenhams or house builder Taylor Wimpey have gained more than 100 per cent, as has Erste Bank, one of central Europe’s biggest lenders, and carmakers Fiat and Renault. This is not investment; it is speculation. It is also the hallmark of a bear market rally – a brief spurt when bad news is brushed aside before it comes crashing back.

That is likely when the reporting season begins anew. Many companies say sales are down but still believe they can protect profit margins. Last year, these were near all-time highs. But in a typical recession, as SocGen points out, they can halve. The bad corporate news is yet to come.