As investors scour the globe for green shoots, one unequivocal sign of recovery would be a resurgence of the Asian high-yield bond market. When times were really good, junk-rated issuers pumped out tens of billions of dollar-denominated deals. Investors seeking dizzying coupons underpinned by seemingly strong structural growth could barely get enough. Yet while new issues in the west have come roaring back – there was more financing in the 2009 second quarter for US speculative-grade issuers than all of last year – the Asian primary market still seems nailed shut. While America hands new money to triple C issuers, no Asian corporate rated below triple B has tapped the dollar market since the Philippines’ SM Investments completed a $350m five-year deal a year ago.

Why? Quoted prices have rallied, implying a resurgence of risk appetite: Bank of America Merrill Lynch indices show a 50 per cent return on Asian junk in the first six months, versus 28 per cent in the US and 37 per cent in Europe. But there is only limited evidence of investors actually increasing exposure to Asian high-yield – such as the holders of the 2011 debt of Sino-Forest, a Chinese plantation owner, who have been asked to extend to 2014, with a higher coupon. Otherwise, supply is still being taken out by buyback offers – some opportunistic, some genuinely distressed – as issuers swap expensive offshore debt for cheaper onshore funding. Trading is thin, partly because of a lack of liquidity from prop desks, hedge funds or structured vehicles. The stand-off cannot last forever – almost $4bn of Asian high-yield matures this year and $17bn over the next two years. But for the time being, new supply is more likely to come from issuers newly fallen from investment grade to junk, rather than from existing junk-rated issuers.