The outlook for global economic imbalances has unquestionably improved this year with the slowdown in the US and stronger growth in Japan and the eurozone. In dollar terms, the roughly $850bn a year US current account deficit seems to be levelling out and may edge downwards as the US slowdown takes hold.

There have been glimpses, too, of a greater shared understanding of the problem by national economic policymakers, and a new role for the International Monetary Fund. But further increases in the price of oil have pushed in the other direction, adding to existing imbalances while also undermining growth and putting upward pressure on inflation.