COMMENT It is not too early to assess the first geopolitical lessons of the current financial maelstrom. As the crisis unfolds, trends are emerging. The near collapse of financial capitalism both confirms and accelerates a revolution that was already under way in international politics. Who are the losers and who are likely to be the winners – that is, those who lose the least – in the present mess? In the language of Wall Street, the west is down and the state is up. Moreover, democracy itself risks falling into disrepute if solutions are not found to the crisis.
First, the shock reinforces the relative decline of the US and the passage from a unipolar to a multipolar world. Whoever is its next president, America will not only have to face more diverse and complex challenges but will have fewer means with which to confront them. The interaction between the infectious greed of its financial class and its politicians’ dereliction of duty has impoverished the country. The torch of history seems to be passing from west to east. It is true that China and India are also affected by the financial turmoil; less so Japan, a country whose financial conservatism is the product of bitter experience 20 years ago. But to paraphrase French President François Mitterrand: growth is in the east and debts are in the west. Furthermore, fear is in the west and hope is in the east, so we are equipped in very different ways to face this crisis.
