Marc Bolland, chief executive of Wm Morrison, must eye the future with a certain amount of trepidation now that Sir Ken Morrison, the supermarket chain’s legendary chairman, has finally retired.
The truth is, the market priced in recovery at Morrison well before Mr Bolland had even outlined his strategic review last year. The shares were trading at 22 times forecast 2007-08 earnings at the beginning of last year, 26 times by mid-March and just more than 20 times the underlying earnings finally reported yesterday.
To be fair to investors, they had been kept waiting for a day like this. The 66 per cent rise in pre-tax profit, 20 per cent increase in the full-year dividend and the return of £1bn in surplus capital were welcome. But when Morrison bought Safeway in 2004, investors were led to believe they would see £1bn in the profit line by now. Instead, the botched integration led to profit warnings and recriminations, with an unpleasant touch of southern snobbery about the (admittedly misdirected) product range thrown in.
There’s no need for shareholders to bear a grudge. Morrison’s prospects now look good. Fresher, lighter branding should be rolled out to all stores by July and the upward sales trend over the past four quarters suggests it is already having an impact. Customers – 9.5m at last count – are coming back and staying.
There is a strong sense, nonetheless, that Morrison is still catching up with bigger rivals. No internet sales, no big push into “non-food” items: Mr Bolland is relying on core values, the most basic being price advantage.
While there is no shame in being the solid defensive option in difficult markets, the prospective p/e for 2008-09 at 18 times looks quite heady. The chief executive may not have Sir Ken breathing down his neck any more, but he still has the shareholders as an impatient surrogate.
Astana-upon-Thames
The prospect of Kazakh miners going toe to steel-capped toe in the City is making some people a little giddy.
Perhaps it was the absence of much to chew on in the Budget, but Wednesday’s short statement from Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation – that it had been reviewing a potential combination with Kazakhmys – triggered a stream of speculation about what must really be going on. Kazakhmys’s response that no proposal had been received from ENRC seems only to have added to a feeling that we are witnessing a no-holds-barred post-Soviet punch-up that can only end badly.
But if you set aside the exotic pedigree of the two companies – the kind to turn FTSE 100 purists puce – this looks like a more conventional exchange of fire under the Takeover Code. An 8.5 per cent intra-day rise in the price of Kazakhmys stock on Wednesday was followed by a Bloomberg report quoting speculation about an ENRC-Kazakhmys deal. Both factors would usually trigger consultations with the Takeover Panel – and the need for a statement. As for ENRC’s “informal contacts” with Kazakhmys, the Panel’s broad definition means “an approach” can be as casual as a comment dropped into “a conversation on unrelated matters”. Given the direct and indirect connections between the two companies – Kazakhmys is a large shareholder in ENRC – there must be plenty of occasions for such chit-chat.
In truth, both sides have been showing off. Kazakhmys itself underlined its “flexibility on future opportunities” for its ENRC stake during its results presentation last week. That lends weight to the idea that some merger of the two may eventually take place – and that ENRC relished the opportunity, on the day it earned entry to the FTSE 100, to remind its compatriot that it was easily the bigger of the two. But there are plenty of obstacles to a deal, however structured.
One of the reasons both companies opted for a main London listing was that they would be held to the City’s most stringent requirements when it came to governance and transparency.
The fact that such arm-wrestling has to take place in the open, under London rules, ought to be reassuring.
Rose runs for president
The board of Marks and Spencer announces that, effective from March 13 2027, Sir Stuart Rose will retire as executive chairman of the company. We are proud to pay tribute to Sir Stuart, 77, who is stepping down 55 years after he first joined M&S. We originally intended to replace him in 2011, but realised that his unique retailing skills were literally irreplaceable. We’re pleased to say that Sir Stuart has accepted the position of honorary executive president, an ambassadorial role that will allow him to oversee the board, run the company and continue the long quest to develop the future leaders of the business.

COLUMNISTS 
