So far, so defensible. The first economic data to emerge after the Federal Reserve’s shock half-point interest rate cut caused no embarrassments. In fact, Wednesday’s inflation and housing releases broadly supported the central bank’s aggressive position.
On inflation, the consumer price index remains docile. Both the headline and core figure (excluding volatile food and energy) were about 2 per cent year-on-year in August. Admittedly, inflation expectations over the next 10 years, as measured by Treasury inflation-protected securities, have inched up. But they are about 2.3 per cent for CPI, consistent with a reading towards the top of the Fed’s comfort zone on its preferred core PCE measure. And Wednesday’s sharp rises in long-dated Treasury yields can be explained partly as a snap back after recent heavy falls rather than simply evidence of a serious inflation scare.

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