Nothing spices up a morning like receiving an unexpected package. Possible interest in TNT from rival FedEx sent shares in the mail group up by more than a quarter on Monday. Yet the idea of consolidation has surfaced periodically since UPS, another US competitor, listed in 1999. Will FedEx actually make a bid this time?

The logic behind a deal is clear. FedEx and UPS are both strong globally in express delivery services, but lack scale in Europe. For example, FedEx serves only about 2 per cent of the intra-Europe express market, compared with TNT’s 17 per cent. With TNT’s exposure outside Europe limited mainly to a decent Australasian business and some nascent Asian exposure, the geographic fit would be attractive.