Unlike the rest of the world, China’s economy seems to be on steroids. The country notched up a record trade surplus in October when exports rose 19 per cent year on year. November data are expected to show only a slight decline. Yet such levels of growth are unsustainable, given shrinking global demand. It is also not the full story.

Some of that growth represents export orders taken a few months ago and only now being shipped. Adjust the figures so they strip out the currency effects of China’s appreciating renminbi, and growth also looks less gung-ho. In addition, rising exports do not necessarily mean Chinese factories are still whirring faster and faster; Chinese manufacturers may be running down inventories instead. Last month’s 8.2 per cent increase in industrial production supports this notion as it is half the level at the start of the year. Finally, Asian data are indicative of a Chinese slowdown, since about half of China’s exports relate to processing goods made around Asia, and then shipping the finished products onwards. Exports from Malaysia, which sends electronic and other parts to China for assembly, fell 7 per cent in October compared with last year while Taiwanese exports plummeted by 38 per cent in November. If such countries are exporting less to China, it in turn will have fewer finished goods to export to the rest of the world.