So this crisis is about to end, right? There are two failsafe ways to justify a solid dose of optimism: define the crisis in a sufficiently narrow way; and, even better, look at the wrong crisis. In that spirit I am happy to state my optimism about the prospective end of the subprime crisis.

But this would be disingenuous. It is no accident that our multiple crises - property, credit, banking, food and commodities - have been happening at the same time. The simple reason is that they are all part of same overriding narrative. The mother of all these crises is global macroeconomic adjustment - a rare case, incidentally, where the word "crisis" can be used in its Greek meaning of "turning point".