Soon after I arrived in Moscow as a correspondent at the start of 1993, Andrei Kozyrev, the then Russian foreign minister, made a speech warning that if the west continued to ignore Russia’s vital interests and publicly humiliate the country, there would one day be a Russian reaction that would sweep away the new partnership with the west that he and other Russian liberals were trying to build. A western colleague scrawled on a transcript of his remarks: “More of Kozyrev’s ravings.” Thus were dismissed out of hand the reasonable concerns of the most pro-western foreign minister that Russia has ever had.

Western policymakers therefore need to understand that the attitudes set out by President Vladimir Putin in his speech in Munich will define Russian approaches to the west for the foreseeable future. This is not only because the basic form of Russia’s ruling order now seems set for a long time to come. It is also because Mr Putin’s remarks reflect those of a large majority of Russians – and indeed, a great many other peoples around the world – and because the US has recently suffered serious blows to its power and prestige.