Opposite the vast Lenin tractor factory in Minsk, the Belarus capital, the crowd is vocal but sparse - 300 at most. The meeting hall where Alexander Milinkevich applied to hold an election rally is locked. So the presidential challenger stands on the icy steps and addresses his supporters through a loud-hailer.

A few paces away, a plain-clothes policeman intones into another megaphone: "Respected citizens, this meeting is unsanctioned. You are asked to leave." Behind the building lurk green-and-white buses loaded with police. Mr Milinkevich is unbowed. "The more of us there are, the less we have to fear," he says, sounding more hopeful than convinced.