Friday’s news of a slowdown in German economic growth in the fourth quarter is a reminder that the long-awaited recovery cannot be taken at face value. What may have happened is that companies postponed investment to the first quarter of this year, to take advantage of the government’s new capital depreciation rules. I would therefore still expect the recovery to be on course. I would also expect it to be strong enough to withstand further increases in eurozone interest rates this year.

What I am less certain of is whether this recovery will prove sustainable. The causes of Germany’s fundamental economic weakness are still there. There are several conventional explanations, none of which is fully convincing.