Financial Times FT.com

Non-financial risks series: Mining groups encounter tough lessons

By Mike Scott

Published: June 4 2007 03:00 | Last updated: June 4 2007 03:00

The mining industry finds itself in the midst of a commodities boom - a global "supercycle", driven by the astonishing thirst for natural resources of China. According to the International Monetary Fund, China was responsible for 51 per cent of the growth in the world copper market from 2002-2005, 54 per cent of the increase in the steel market, 48 per cent of aluminium growth and 87 per cent for nickel.

Although this may seem like a wholly positive situation for the industry, a number of unexpected risks and opportunities arise. First of all there is the simple danger of the unstable supply and demand pendulum swinging the other way. Mining groups are ramping up supplies to meet the increased demand, but Fiona Paulus of ABN Amro warns: "if China's growth were to slow as output rises, there could be huge gluts and prices could plummet".

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