It is hard to time your jump when the hurdle keeps rising. Yet in spite of the US government’s tinkering with the criteria banks must fulfil to repay funds from the troubled asset relief programme, several look set to qualify, perhaps as early as next week. JPMorgan Chase, American Express and Morgan Stanleyshould satisfy the latest requirement to show an ability to tap equity markets. For the latter, it is for the second time, having more than met its stress-test shortfall with a $4bn equity raising last month.

That the government is being ultra cautious in granting banks their freedom is no surprise. The administration may be wary of newly liberated banks squeezing lending or reinstituting eye-watering bonus payouts. Far worse, however, is the prospect of a former Tarper needing to return to protective custody, a huge embarrassment for all concerned. Moody’s expects losses and writedowns of $470bn in 2009 and 2010 for 69 rated US banks, or perhaps $640bn should the economy stagnate through next year. Under the latter scenario, two-thirds of their universe would need to raise more capital (even after this year’s frenzy) to achieve a ratio of tangible common equity to risk-weighted assets of 7 per cent. Without a full-throated recovery, banks’ balance sheets remain vulnerable.