Next May, some 390m people will be eligible to vote in elections for the European parliament. The most vexed question at this poll will be how Europe’s far right performs. In recent times, several of those parties – such as Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France and Geert Wilders’ Freedom party in the Netherlands – have surged in support as their countries have struggled with recession. This election is a chance for these movements to make a real mark.

The strongest sign that the far right is actively mobilising for the vote came this week when Ms Le Pen and Mr Wilders forged a pact to fight the election side-by-side. They are not the most obvious allies, of course. Mr Wilders’ party is pro-gay, pro-women’s rights and pro-Israel. Ms Le Pen’s National Front is homophobic, anti-gay marriage and has never completely rid itself of anti-Semitism. Still, their hostility to the EU and to immigration gives them common purpose.

This alliance should worry Europe’s mainstream politicians. First, the new electoral pact means both parties may end up with a large caucus in the new parliament. If the alliance wins 25 seats in seven countries, it will gain access to significant funds and speaking rights. This risks creating a scenario similar to that in the US Congress, where the Tea Party has immobilised legislative action.

Second, success for the far right will have an impact on national politics across the EU. Mainstream parties, fearful of the far right’s electoral success, will probably flirt with tougher policies on Europe and immigration. Ms Le Pen will also gain a significant boost in her own country, given the chronic weakness of centre-left and centre-right parties.

As they watch the far right’s resurgence, European leaders have few levers to pull. Ideally, governments would implement policies to stimulate the eurozone economy and reduce joblessness. But Germany’s insistence on tight fiscal and monetary policy means necessary stimulus will not come soon.

Still, Europe’s leaders must keep one point firmly in mind. However unpalatable they may be, the National Front and Freedom party need to be engaged in debate, not ostracised. Delegitimising these parties merely gives them the anti-establishment aura they crave. Moreover, while their policies on Europe and immigration are crude, the far right is gaining ground because of genuine public fears on these issues. Those concerns must be forensically debated – not dismissed.

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Letters in response to this article:

Rise of far right long predates the crisis / From Mr Tom Brown

Don’t give the fruitcakes more space / From Mr Bob Taylor

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