So what will happen if the Irish vote No in their second referendum on the Lisbon treaty on October 2? Would a No vote not produce a massive political crisis, both in the European Union and in Ireland? Might it not lead to a speculative attack against Irish government bonds, and raise the risk of outright default? Last year, after a first referendum produced an overwhelming No, I argued in a series of columns that a definite rejection of the treaty would effectively strike that country off the political and economic map.

I no longer believe that to be the case. If the Irish vote No, I now believe it will be the end of the treaty, not of Ireland. The presidents of Poland and the Czech Republic will suspend ratification processes indefinitely. The treaty will not come back the following year, or even in five years, not even in disguise, or with a different name.