Gold bugs are becalmed. After breaching $1,000 an ounce in March, the metal has spent the past two months at $850-$950. Such a range, in which the price is close to the 200-day moving average, has chartists salivating. A break-out either way may signal a lurch to new highs or a sharp fall – but which?

With supply issues taking a back seat, the answer depends on which of gold’s demand drivers – let’s call them physical, funk, funds, fuel and forex – commands the tiller.