The view from the mud is pretty optimistic. Caterpillar was in upbeat mode on Tuesday as it reported third quarter results that were less bad than feared. Assuming that central banks don’t throw sand in the gears by raising interest rates too soon, the world’s largest maker of earth moving equipment expects the global economy to grow by 3 per cent next year. Having hit bottom, the group expects its own sales will rebound by a swift 10-25 per cent.

Such cheer may be reasonable because hitting the lower end of that range merely requires no further decline in end-demand. Caterpillar dealers simply have to stop clearing out their inventories to provide a revenue boost. There should also be pent-up demand to satisfy. The US – still the group’s largest and most profitable market – peaked back in 2006, and McGraw Hill Construction forecasts total US construction will grow by 11 per cent in 2010.