Shellshocked investors in New York, London and Tokyo can take solace in one fact. However badly local stock indices have performed recently, they are practically levitating compared to those in places such as Moscow, São Paulo and Shanghai. With their worst monthly fall in history – worse than the 1995 tequila crisis, 1997 Asian panic or 1998 Russian default – never has the tag “submerging markets” applied more.
The decoupling theme is now well and truly discredited, but emerging market investors have not done as badly as the recent headlines might suggest. Unlike previous financial shake-outs, they may also have more downside protection than their developed peers. Notwithstanding the stunning 43 per cent drop in the benchmark MSCI Emerging Market index during the past month, they have outperformed handsomely during the last economic cycle. The S&P 500 is now just 14 per cent above its October 2002 bear market low and down 17 per cent over a decade, while emerging markets still hold a gain of 86 per cent from the 2002 low and have doubled since their 1998 lows.

LEX 