No wonder Bank of America wants to sell part of its stake – worth some $17bn – in China Construction Bank. Plenty of others must be tempted as well. In all, foreign banks, many of whom are now raising capital, spent $11bn amassing shares in the big three Chinese banks in 2005 and 2006. Today, these stakes are worth more than $90bn.
Foreign stakeholders will be able to sell from October, when the first of the three-year lock-up periods expires. But do not count on a rush for the exits. For starters, prices may not look so tempting compared with a year ago. Chinese banks, once Asia’s most expensive, have since been overtaken by racier private sector Indian lenders. In spite of rallying in the past month, the big three trade on 11-15 times forward earnings. And there are other worries. Economic slowdown will inevitably result in an increase in non-performing loans. Government lending quotas will translate into a 2 percentage point or so fall in new loan growth in 2008. Fee income from sales of mutual funds and securities will surely drop given the falling stock market.

CHINA 

