Once the performers in a long-running musical or play are no longer convincing in their roles, either the show or the cast needs to change. The same is true of political theatre. The Queen's Speech, the formal start to the parliamentary year, is supposed to set the agenda for the Westminster season. Yesterday's litany of bills and measures was a lacklustre affair. It bears little relation to the real drama ahead.

The legislative programme for Tony Blair's last year makes it clear that he is a prime minister with no political capital to spend. These are like plans announced by an administration that intends to call an election shortly and is just passing parliamentary time in a mildly useful way. Yet this is a government elected with a clear majority only 18 months ago, and which has plenty of manifesto commitments still unmet. Whether the Labour party has a contest or a coronation to choose its next leader, the UK's constitution means that it need not - and probably will not - trigger a general election.