It is a slowdown, Jim, but not as the rest of the world would know it. Growth in China's galloping economy is set to decelerate slightly next year, with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank pencilling in rates of 10 and 10.8 per cent respectively. Put another way, on IMF estimates China will still generate almost $40bn more incremental dollars of output than the US in 2008.
Just how modest an impact the global slowdown will have on China remains to be seen. Exports will clearly suffer, but against that optimists see scope for greater investment as bruised western companies seek to cut costs through further outsourcing to cheaper markets. Even more optimistic, perhaps, is the view that domestic demand will take up the baton, thus providing China with the much-needed rebalancing it has struggled to pull off. Bigger structural changes need to occur before China turns into a nation of spendthrift shoppers: specifically, the creation of a decent welfare net.

