The UK is setting unwanted records and winning unpleasant accolades. Britain has just undergone its longest recorded economic contraction and is now likely to be the last major country to return to growth. Data released last week revealed that UK output fell by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter – a disappointingly slender improvement on the 0.6 per cent decline in the second quarter. But, in truth, this new information tells us little.

Britain’s initial estimates for gross domestic product, such as were released last week, are stunningly lousy. There is no significant statistical relationship between the Office for National Statistics’ first swing at estimating output and the final figures upon which it settles some months later.