Who is afraid of an oil shock? Almost no one, seems to be the answer. For this state of bliss, there are several reasons. But among the most significant is that the US, not relatively fragile developing countries, is the large-scale borrower this time. That has made it far easier for the world economy to jump over the current shock than the previous ones.

The shock itself is large, as the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook shows. Between 2002 and 2005, the net oil exports of the fuel-exporting countries rose by $437bn in 2005 US dollars, against $436bn between 1973 and 1981. But the world economy has grown since then. The increase in net oil exports from these countries was 1.9 per cent of gross global product between 1973 and 1981, against 1.2 per cent between 2002 and 2005.