The good news is that even some of the world’s most enthusiastic economic pessimists, such as Nouriel Roubini of New York University, are beginning to discuss “exit strategies” from the worst global recession in generations. The bad news is that many of these exit strategies appear as toxic as a bunch of subprime mortgage assets.

At the Ambrosetti finance forum over the weekend, where leading economists, policymakers and business leaders debated the state of the world, a surprising consensus emerged that the global economy would recover from recession next year, if not before. In spite of the calamitous collapse in global output and world trade, the huge monetary jolts and fiscal stimuli administered by the authorities in the US and elsewhere would surely revive economic life.