First Russia despatched overwhelming military force to smash the tiny army of its little neighbour, Georgia, on the pretext of defending a minority group from alleged "genocide". Now Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's president, has recognised the "independence" of the secessionist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in defiance of United Nations resolutions and the urgent pleading of Washington and the European Union. The Kremlin is determined to demonstrate that it can behave as it will in its own backyard and call the bluff of Georgia's western allies.

In the short term, Russia seems to have all the cards. The Nato allies are not going to send troops to defend Georgia. They are far too bogged down in Afghanistan, not to mention Iraq, to commit soldiers on the ground. They need Russia's support in curbing the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea. Above all they want Russia's oil and gas, and access to the growing Russian market. No one wants to go back to the cold war confrontation.