When presented with positive signs emanating from the US commercial property market, remember the words of Friedrich Nietzsche: “Hope is the worst of evils, for it prolongs the torments of man.” The Moody’s/REAL national commercial property price index fell by only 1 per cent in June, after two consecutive 7 per cent-plus month-on-month declines. Now down 35.5 per cent from the peak, this tempering of the rate of declines – combined with the aberration of an improvement in second quarter office prices – has optimists looking for an end to the market’s pain.

True, sales volumes improved in June. But activity remains barely one-20th of the monthly peak in February 2007. There are simply not enough deals to get a robust picture of property values. Moody’s figures were based on 87 repeat sales, where previously recorded transactions enable a comparison. However, that distressed sales are on the rise suggests that the market’s purge is beginning.