Perhaps in New York or Washington it appears only a matter of time before the global financial storm batters the shores of countries such as Germany. But in Europe's biggest economy, it still seems safe to go bathing.

The talk among economists and at the Bundesbank is of a gradual slowdown in Germany this year - certainly nothing dramatic. It is expected to come, moreover, as a result of weaker global growth, higher oil prices and a stronger euro, rather than any direct fallout from the US mortgage crisis. Even then, Angel Gurría, secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, said yesterday, such factors had not had much effect "so far". The OECD's latest report on the German economy noted its resilience.