George W. Bush's re-election and the certainty of imminent change in Palestinian leadership presents a historic opportunity to settle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The rapid deterioration in the health of Yassir Arafat, the Palestinian leader, has hastened the succession process and could boost efforts to renew the defunct Mideast peace process. Even if Mr Arafat survives, Palestinian officials say he will not return to his job. There is no precedent for succession in the Palestinian movement and it is by no means clear who would eventually replace him. If, as some hope, a moderate like Mahmoud Abbas succeeds Mr Arafat, a compromise could conceivably be made to work.

Ever since Mr Arafat rejected Israel's compromise proposals at Camp David in 2000, Israelis have maintained they have "no partner" on the Palestinian side. This allowed Ariel Sharon, Israel's prime minister, to refuse talks with his lifelong adversary and place him under house arrest. Mr Arafat did little to dispel his bad reputation. He used chaos and disintegration in the Palestinian Authority to consolidate power and waited for the intifada to drive the Israelis from the occupied territories.