Is the worst over for the US economy? Some recent figures point that way, and much US economic commentary is growing cautiously optimistic. For the moment, though, the emphasis needs to stay on caution not optimism.

Certainly, the economy is levelling off: output is no longer in free-fall, and unemployment is no longer growing at post-war record rates. But it is unclear whether the bottom for output has quite been reached. Once it has, growth may be slow for some time. As for jobs, whatever happens, unemployment is likely to rise further before it falls back to more normal levels.