Markets are nothing if not paradoxical and the paradox of the moment concerns the conflicting signals emerging from bond and commodity markets about inflation. Long dated US Treasuries yield around 4.5 per cent at a time when headline consumer price inflation in the year to January was running at 4.3 per cent. This suggests remarkably little concern about rising prices, along with the possibility that inflationary expectations are, in central banker jargon, “well anchored”.
Yet we know that the recent surge in commodity prices is partly driven by fear of inflation. Also by an allergic reaction to the many toxic varieties of IOU spawned by the banking system. And the index-linked market, where shorter dated bonds are suddenly and bizarrely showing negative yields, is sending a message that sits very oddly with the valuation of fixed rate paper.
