The single most important statistic from the French opinion polls is that more than 40 per cent of the electorate is still undecided. With less than six weeks to go until the first round of the elections, this is an extremely high number. It means that anything can happen.

It also means that one should take seriously the surge in the polls by François Bayrou, the leader of the centrist UDF party. The French presidential election is at present a race between three politicians. According to the latest CSA poll for Le Parisien, Mr Bayrou now gets 24 per cent of the first round votes, up seven points, Ségolène Royal 25 per cent, down four points, and Nicolas Sarkozy 26 per cent, down three points. Other polls have a slightly lower figure for Mr Bayrou, but the trend has been the same. He has been gaining at the expense of both his opponents and in particular Ms Royal.