In the macho world of stimulus packages – mine is bigger than yours – Hu Jintao is squaring up to Barack Obama. As the US president-elect prepares to put an estimated $700bn on the table, talk in Beijing suggests he may be trumped by his Chinese counterpart-to-be. Indeed, China’s local governments are clamouring to spend $1,500bn of Beijing’s money on pet projects although this will probably prove a pipedream.
Trillions, schmillions. What matters is the multiplier effect – how government money trickles into jobs, wage packets and shops, especially now that even the World Bank has cut its forecast for Chinese economic growth next year to 7.5 per cent. China earlier this month unveiled its $590bn package, of which perhaps one-quarter represents “new” spending. That focused on investment, specifically through infrastructure and housing. The latest measures, expected to be announced at the Central Economic Policy Conference beginning this week, may turn out to be mere elaboration – providing more detail and perhaps some more dollars too. Nonetheless, early soundings offer reason for cheer. Measures reportedly include wage increases in the state sector, tax breaks, bigger housing subsidies and healthcare improvements. All would put more money in consumers’ pockets.

LEX 