Problems are not so much solved as replaced by other problems. How many people remember that only a few months ago the main problem facing the world economy was supposed to be that of “imbalances”: the large current payments deficits of the US and a few other countries, offset by surpluses in China, Japan and the oil-exporting countries? Since then, while all eyes have been on the bank credit crisis the imbalance problem has begun to fade away.

To start with, the dollar has fallen by 36 per cent on the official trade-weighted index against major currencies since its high point in 2002 and by a sensational 41 per cent against the euro. Goldman Sachs has estimated that US real exports should rise by almost 8 per cent in 2007 against a rise of just under 3 per cent in imports. This will be for the first time in 12 years that net exports will have made a positive contribution to US growth.