Has this week witnessed a return to normality? Some signals say yes. US output – with substantial government assistance – was estimated to be 3.5 per cent greater in the third quarter compared with the second, while house prices rose for the third consecutive month in August. In Europe, the year-long IPO drought showed signs of ending with a successful launch of Poland’s largest electricity generator and more listings in the pipeline. And BP and Shell – despite a falling profits due to lower oil prices – continued to rake in the cash while maintaining attractive dividends. Even ratings agencies, the whipping boys of the post-crisis world, showed signs of bouncing back. The good news enticed some retail investors who sat out the recent rally back into the market.

But they may be better advised to sit on their hands for a while longer. Bond yields demonstrated that buyers of US government securities have a more sober interpretation of recent economic events. Melt-up could be followed by another meltdown if banks loading up on government debt at a time of rising budget deficits are later forced to sell bonds when interest rates inevitably rise.