Passenger numbers due on Thursday from Go-Ahead Group, one of five main operators of Britain’s rail franchises, will attract uncommon scrutiny. With leisure travel falling and commuters losing jobs, rail has become one of the market’s least-loved corners. The big five’s shares have plunged 40-70 per cent since September.

The problem? Rail companies rely on sales continuing to increase, as during the decade after privatisation in 1996. Much of the fare base was also allowed to rise at 1 percentage point above retail price inflation. Bidders for franchises awarded in 2004-07 used ever-exuberant revenue projections. (Bidders pitch on the basis of declining annual subsidies they will need from government – or, on profitable routes, increasing premiums they will pay – to leave a modest profit). But not just passenger numbers have slowed. If retail prices are falling this July, train fares will fall next year. The government has signalled little sympathy.