Let us make a bet with very high odds and sad returns: Iran's nuclear programme is likely to derail any serious rapprochement between the US and western Europe. Indeed, it is quite possible this issue will do more damage to US-European relations than the Iraq war did, because the European Union's approach to a nuclear Islamic republic could become more morally repellent to George W. Bush than was the Franco-German campaign against the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq.

US officials may be suggesting an imminent "convergence" of American and European views. It is more likely, however, that Mr Bush will recoil from most of the compromises envisioned by the Europeans. As both tough economic sanctions and preventive military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities are distasteful if not unthinkable to leaders of the EU3 - the British, French and German group negotiating with Iran over its nuclear programme - "carrots" are, for the Europeans, the only diplomatic tools left. As Robert Kagan, the foreign policy historian, has noted, when soft power becomes the only option in foreign affairs, appeasement - the preferred European word is "engagement" - becomes a morally and strategically compelling choice.