Ukraine opposition leader warns Yanukovich will not give up post

President Viktor Yanukovich will “fight to the last bullet” to keep his job and is being backed by a Russian leadership that wants to reabsorb Ukraine into a “modern USSR”, warned Arseny Yatseniuk, one of the country’s main opposition leaders.

But Mr Yatseniuk, who last week turned down an offer from Mr Yanukovich to become prime minister, said the president might still end the crisis and keep his job until scheduled elections in 2015 if he gave opposition leaders control of a national unity government and accepted curbs on his powers.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Yatseniuk said he had turned down the president’s offer because the position did not involve having full control of the government. To anti-government protesters who have camped on Kiev’s frozen streets for the past two months, it would have appeared a sellout.

Mr Yatseniuk is one of the bright young things of Ukrainian politics. At 39, he has already served as national bank governor, foreign minister, and economy minister. Now he leads the Fatherland party of jailed former premier Yulia Tymoshenko.

Nothing had prepared him, however, for being co-leader of a proto-revolution against Ukraine’s president that could yet tip the 46m-strong country into civil conflict. The protests were triggered by Mr Yanukovich’s rejection of an integration agreement with the EU in favour of a $15bn loan package from Russia.

Analysts and diplomats acknowledge Mr Yatseniuk as the most experienced and politically savvy of the three main opposition leaders. But his technocratic manner means his poll ratings lag behind those of Vitali Klitschko, the former boxer, and Oleh Tyahnybok, leader of Svoboda, Ukraine’s best-known nationalist party.

In depth

Ukraine political crisis

Kiev is facing its most serious crisis since independence in 1991 in a dispute over trade links with the EU and Russia

Demonstrators have criticised all three for a lack of clear strategy, and results – at least until violent clashes last week between more radical protesters and the police finally brought some government compromises. These included the resignation of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, permission for parliament to repeal anti-protest laws passed earlier in January and an amnesty for hundreds of jailed protesters.

However, under direct presidential pressure, Mr Yanukovich’s Regions party attached conditions to the amnesty bill that opposition leaders say are unacceptable.

The amnesty takes effect only if protesters leave within 15 days several government buildings they have occupied; if not, police could clear them – providing a potential pretext for a bloody crackdown that Mr Yatseniuk claims the regime is preparing.

On Sunday, tens of thousands of anti-Yanukovich protesters rallied for a tenth week in downtown Kiev within a barricaded tent encampment. They showed no signs of vacating Kiev city hall and several other buildings seized in early December.

Over the weekend, Mr Yatseniuk and other opposition leaders held talks with US secretary of state John Kerry and EU officials at the annual Munich security conference.

As western leaders pressed Mr Yanukovich to compromise with the opposition-backed protesters and re-engage with the EU, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, shot back, accusing the US and EU of supporting radicals that “seize and hold government buildings [and] attack the police.”

Late on Sunday, Ukrainian authorities allowed Dmytro Bulatov, a protest leader who claims to have been abducted and tortured for one week by unknown assailants, to fly to an EU country for medical treatment.

The strain caused by lack of sleep, late-night speeches on Kiev’s freezing Independence Square and tangled negotiations are reflected in Mr Yatseniuk’s red-ringed eyes and a forehead shining with a fever he says has lasted for two months.

“We’re both sick, me and President Yanukovich,” he says with a laugh that brings on a fit of coughing, referring to the president’s withdrawal from the political scene on Thursday with a “respiratory illness” and high temperature. According to a statement posted on the presidential website on Sunday, Mr Yanukovich will return to work on Monday.

In effect, says Mr Yatseniuk, the president made his moves, then left his opponents with a take-them-or-leave-them ultimatum.

“It’s better than nothing, that’s crystal clear,” he says. “But my message to everyone is very clear, that this president will never step down by his own will. He will fight for his office until the last bullet.”

With demonstrators in Kiev saying only the president’s exit will end the protests, such a scenario is explosive. But Mr Yatseniuk believes one other solution might be accepted.

Under this, he and his colleagues would get full power to run a technocratic government and Mr Yanukovich would reinstate some version of a previous Ukrainian constitution, which boosted parliament’s powers and reduced those of the president.

“In this case, we can convince the people: ‘Look, he doesn’t want to resign, so we can’t get snap presidential elections. But we represent you in the government and protect you from the government. And partly we have changed the system, but not the position [of president]’,” says Mr Yatseniuk. “People are not stupid. They do understand that it’s better to have the opposition in the government . . . [than] in prison cells.”

An opposition-led government, he adds, would seek to renew negotiations over an EU agreement and International Monetary Fund support for Ukraine’s ailing economy.

Yet with foreign exchange reserves running low and zero growth last year, taking over government a year before presidential elections could be a poisoned chalice. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin warned last week that Moscow would withhold further payments from its bailout until it saw the future shape of Ukraine’s government.

“If we accept, the chances of failing are much higher than the chances of winning,” concedes Mr Yatseniuk, adding that he is convinced Russia will do everything possible to bring Ukraine back into Moscow’s orbit. “This is not just a risky game. After Mr Putin’s statement last week, it’s Russian roulette.”