Election victories – like murders – require three elements: means, motives, and opportunities. It does not need Inspector Maigret to explain Nicolas Sarkozy’s electoral success. In this tumultuous presidential campaign, the neo-Gaullist candidate has had the most powerful means and clearest motives and has exploited a perfect opportunity.

First, Mr Sarkozy gave himself the means by seizing control of the ruling UMP party in November 2004 and turning it into a formidable political machine. French parties – particularly of the right – have been shambolic affairs; shifting coalitions of convenience that have resembled personal fan clubs more than professional political organisations. Yet as UMP president, Mr Sarkozy built something far more substantial, rigorously analysing public opinion, expanding membership, and devising effective methods of communication, particularly via the unregulated internet.