Peak oil or freak oil? The current oil shock, with Nymex crude touching $142 , has as much to do with bad luck as geology. And, as usual with luck, man has largely made his own.

The central theme of this decade’s bull market in crude is little different from previous oil shocks: a change in expectations about future supplies. In other words, many think we have enough oil today but might not tomorrow. A series of largely man-made disruptions has fed that fear. In countries such as Russia and Mexico, resource nationalism has stifled investment in supply. Violence in Nigeria and Iraq has shut down fields. The Energy Policy Research Foundation estimates the world’s lost output of up to 4.5m b/d is the equivalent of twice the world’s effective spare capacity.