Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, took two large calculated gambles at the beginning of Germany’s presidency of the European Union. The first was an emphasis on climate change, the second an attempt to revive the EU constitution. Not everybody thought this was a smart choice at the time. The first gamble paid off handsomely for Ms Merkel in political terms, no matter what you may think about the details of last month’s climate deal.

I would expect the second gamble to pay off as well. Now, it is true that objectively not much has changed since the French and Dutch voted No on the EU constitution almost two years ago. It is still far from clear how France could ratify the text. The Socialist candidate, Ségolène Royal, has promised a referendum, the outcome of which is unpredictable. Nicolas Sarkozy, the candidate of the centre-right, wants to shove the ratification process through the French parliament. But it is not guaranteed that he will be able do this. The Dutch remain unrelentingly sceptical, as are the British, the Czechs and the Poles.