The end of a recession is easy to spot: just look for growth in gross domestic product. More difficult is calling an end to the credit crunch. Some economists declared the war over in May when short-term bank lending rates fell to record lows. But inflated spreads over base rates still made that credit at least four times more expensive than in June 2007. Now, at last, spreads on three-month Libor have settled back into their boom-time groove, yet a continued lack of lending means credit can still not claim to be uncrunched.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers made fears of counterparty default a reality and sent lending rates sky-high. But although credit markets have gradually eased this year, lending remains tight and the trend towards deleveraging continues. Private sector loans in the eurozone fell for the first time on record during September. And in the UK, net mortgage lending for 2009 has been flat as owners are paying back as much as is lent out, even though mortgage approvals have grown since March. Anheuser-Busch Inbev, the world’s largest brewer, has exceeded its plan to sell $7bn of assets to pay down debt, and British Land sold assets in September to reduce its debt by £1bn in spite of ample headroom in its debt facilities.