On the face of it, the European Central Bank’s decision does not look difficult: interest rates should rise on Thursday. Monday’s “flash” estimate was that eurozone inflation was 4 per cent in June, the highest rate since statistics began in 1997. That means that inflation is more than double the target of below but “close to” 2 per cent, and that real interest rates in the eurozone are now zero.

Not everyone is convinced; any politician wishing to strike a dovish tone at the weekend would have had to queue behind the Spanish prime minister and the German and French finance ministers.